Day 4 post-peak, Vitality Champion Holo consolidated at $70.40 mean (-14.3% cumulative from $82.10 peak). MongolZ silver Holo continues resilient at $64.60 (-5.6% cumulative). Compression rate moderating — steady-state formation confirmed.
Day 4 post-peak prices
| Holo | Cycle peak | Day 4 post-peak | Δ cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vitality (champion) | $82.10 | $70.40 | -14.3% |
| The MongolZ (silver) | $68.40 | $64.60 | -5.6% |
| Spirit (SF) | $34.20 | $28.90 | -15.5% |
| MOUZ (SF) | $28.80 | $24.40 | -15.3% |
Compression rate deceleration analysis
Day-over-day compression rates:
- Vitality Holo: Day 1 (-5.7%), Day 2 (-5.1%), Day 3 (-3.8%). Decelerating pattern → steady-state approaching.
- MongolZ silver Holo: Day 1 (-1.8%), Day 2 (-2.0%), Day 3 (-1.8%). Consistent shallow compression → institutional collector positioning sustains.
- Spirit + MOUZ: More aggressive compression (-3-5% daily) driven by liquidity pull — no defending champion narrative to sustain premium.
Skinport Day 4 volume + buyer pattern
- Total Skinport volume July 23: $5.8M (below Day-3's $6.4M, on-pattern deceleration)
- Vitality Holo transaction count: 1,900 (below Day-3's 2,100)
- MongolZ silver Holo transaction count: 2,050 (above Day-3's 1,850 — Mongolian collector positioning continues accelerating)
- Buyer geography — MongolZ silver Holo (July 23): Mongolia 47% (new cycle high), US 15%, Europe 20%, other 18%
- MongolZ silver Holo as % of total daily Skinport volume: 21.3% — highest single-Holo share since IEM Cologne 2026 champion cycle
Steady-state trajectory
- Days 5-7 (Jul 24-26): Vitality Holo projected $66-70 range, MongolZ silver $60-65 range. Weekly compression rate ~1-2%.
- Days 8-14 (Jul 27 - Aug 2): Steady-state depth. Vitality Holo $62-68, MongolZ silver $58-64.
- Days 15-30 (Aug 3 - Aug 22): Full steady-state. Vitality Holo $58-64, MongolZ silver $56-62. Convergence toward $60 mean.
- Pre-Rio-cycle (Sep 15 - Oct 7): +5-15% pre-cycle rally as Rio Major hype builds. Vitality $65-75, MongolZ silver $65-75.
- Rio Major cycle open (Oct 8): +25-40% rally on positioning flows. Vitality $80-105, MongolZ silver $80-105.
Trader desk realised P&L cumulative update
- Tier-1 desk aggregate realised P&L cumulative: +$2.5M (from +$2.3M Day 3)
- Position size remaining (aggregate): ~$680K Vitality Holo, ~$1.15M MongolZ silver Holo (unchanged from Day 3)
- Realised P&L target completion: 74% of tier-1 desk cycle target
