Day 6 post-peak, Vitality Champion Holo tested the $67.20 mean floor — approaching the projected steady-state $62-68 range. MongolZ silver Holo consolidated at $63.80 with lower daily volatility. Trader desk cumulative realised P&L: +$2.7M.
Day 6 post-peak prices
| Holo | Cycle peak | Day 6 post-peak | Δ cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vitality (champion) | $82.10 | $67.20 | -18.1% |
| The MongolZ (silver) | $68.40 | $63.80 | -6.7% |
| Spirit (SF) | $34.20 | $26.80 | -21.6% |
| MOUZ (SF) | $28.80 | $22.60 | -21.5% |
The Vitality floor test
Vitality Champion Holo intraday chart shows floor-testing behaviour:
- Day 5 close: $68.90
- Day 6 open (09:00 UTC): $68.20
- Day 6 midday dip: $66.40 (institutional buyer entry point)
- Day 6 afternoon recovery: $67.80
- Day 6 close: $67.20 mean
The midday $66.40 dip → afternoon $67.80 recovery pattern is characteristic of institutional buyer entry — trader desks positioning long at the $66 floor before the projected Rio Major cycle pre-run.
MongolZ silver Holo consolidation
MongolZ silver Holo Day 6 intraday range: $63.20-64.40 ($1.20 range, tightest of the cycle). Consolidation confirms institutional collector positioning. Mongolian buyer share on Day 6: 44% (below Day 4's 47% new-cycle-high). Suggests initial collector rush completed — steady-state Mongolian buying now settled at ~40-45%.
Weekly Skinport volume trend
- Post-peak week (Jul 19-25) total: ~$42.8M Skinport volume
- Comparison — pre-Grand-Final week (Jul 12-18): $68.4M
- Comparison — Cologne cycle peak week (Jun 22-28): $85M+
- Trajectory: Post-peak week -37% vs cycle-peak week — on-pattern for post-tournament cool-down.
Post-peak positioning summary
- Trader desk aggregate realised P&L: +$2.7M cumulative (from +$2.5M Day 4)
- Position size remaining: ~$560K Vitality Holo, ~$1.1M MongolZ silver Holo (unchanged from prior days — desks holding through steady-state)
- Rio Major cycle pre-positioning: $220K aggregate deployed to FURIA Souvenir gold pre-positions (2-3 months ahead of Oct 8 capsule release)
- Cycle target completion: 79% of tier-1 desk Spring Finals cycle target hit. Remaining 21% depends on Rio Major cycle rally.
