Twelve days into the IEM Cologne 2026 capsule cycle, the secondary-market read on the eve of the Stage 1 (Challengers) opener:
Current-Major capsules — Group A and Group B
Group A capsule: $1.12 mean (+13% from launch floor). The top team holos (Vitality, Spirit, NAVI) continue to drive the Group A mean, all sitting between +25% and +32% from launch. Vitality holo extended to +32% (from +27% on May 28) on continued Lions Roar jersey demand.
Group B capsule: $1.05 mean (+6%). The Stage 1 challenger holos carry less speculative weight than the Stage 2 team holos in Group A, so the rally has been narrower.
Champions capsule: $1.18 mean (+19% from launch floor). The speculative bid has extended further than the May 28 read ($1.07 mean then). The extension reflects pre-bracket positioning - traders expecting the Champions list to populate with Vitality, Spirit, NAVI, MOUZ, or Falcons are bidding the capsule ahead of the Stage 3 close.
Autograph capsules
Legends Autograph: $1.18 mean (+19%). The player-gold discovery wave (covered May 30) lifted the Legends Autograph bid as traders position for the high-tier gold drop probabilities.
Challengers Autograph: $1.04 mean (+5%). Stage 1 player golds carry softer demand than Stage 2 player golds, so the Challengers Autograph rally has been structurally narrower.
Legacy capsule rally — Boston 2018 gold continues
The Boston 2018 gold-tier capsule rally continues to extend - now +41% from the May 20 baseline, up from +34% on May 28 read. The rally has lasted twelve consecutive trading sessions, which is the longest single-direction move for the Boston 2018 gold tier since the cycle was tracked. The rest of the legacy holo rally has unwound: Berlin 2019 holos at -3% from baseline (complete round-trip plus give-back), Stockholm 2021 papers flat, Cologne 2014 paper holos at +6% (the only other legacy tier still extending).
What changes when Stage 1 opens
Once the Stage 1 bracket opens on June 2, the speculative-positioning phase of the cycle ends and the results-driven phase begins. Team holos linked to winning Stage 1 sides typically rally 30-50% in the 48 hours after their Stage 2 advancement is locked. Team holos linked to losing Stage 1 sides typically retrace 20-30% as exposure rotates to the Stage 2 group. The shift produces a meaningful price discovery period across the full Group A and Group B universe in the June 2-5 window.
Daily price tracking across all sources is in the SkinPulse Skin Database.
