Capsule Cycle Day 16 — Stage 1 Post-Mortem: Chinggis Warriors Holo Retains +28% From Peak, Imperial Drops 35% on Elimination

Capsule Cycle Day 16 — Stage 1 Post-Mortem: Chinggis Warriors Holo Retains +28% From Peak, Imperial Drops 35% on Elimination

The Stage 1 result has fully processed through the sticker capsule secondary market. The June 5 evening snapshot, with Stage 2 pairings just revealed:

Group B team holos — final Stage 1 reads

  • GamerLegion holo: $1.47 mean (+47% from launch). The 3-0 Stage 1 lock plus the Stage 2 GamerLegion-MongolZ headline pairing extends the rally further.
  • paiN holo: $1.38 mean (+38%). 3-0 Stage 1 lock plus the Aurora-paiN headline Stage 2 pairing.
  • BetBoom holo: $1.21 mean (+21%). 3-1 advancement.
  • B8 holo: $1.18 mean (+18%). 3-1 advancement.
  • FlyQuest holo: $1.16 mean (+16%). 3-1 advancement.
  • HEROIC holo: $1.11 mean (+11%). 3-2 advancement, with the narrower margin reflecting the late Stage 1 closeout path.
  • Metizport holo: $1.09 mean (+9%). 3-2 advancement.
  • 3DMAX holo: $1.14 mean (+14%). 3-2 advancement plus the Vitality-3DMAX headline Stage 2 pairing.

The Chinggis Warriors retention

The most-discussed Group B holo on Day 16 is Chinggis Warriors at $1.28 mean (+28% from launch baseline). The peak was +41% on June 3 after the SINNERS upset; the 2-3 elimination should have collapsed the price toward the eliminated-team baseline (-15-25%), but the holo has retained the bulk of the rally on collector-narrative demand. The Mongolian-CS-history-trigger has produced durable holder demand that did not require a Stage 2 advancement to support the price.

Eliminated-side reads

  • Imperial holo: -35% from launch. The largest negative move in the Group B field.
  • Wildcard holo: -29%, second-largest.
  • Lynn Vision holo: -23%.
  • SINNERS holo: -19%, the 1-3 elimination softer than the 0-3 sides because of the Day 3 elimination-match win over Imperial.
  • M80, ECSTATIC, Nemiga: -18%, -16%, -14%. The 1-3 / 2-3 elimination band sits 15-19% below launch.

Group A holos — Stage 2 opener positioning

Group A team holos have shifted into Stage 2 opener positioning. The headline-pairing teams (Aurora, MongolZ, Vitality, paiN — paiN is technically Group B but the pairing exposure is the same) are seeing the strongest pre-match speculative rally. Aurora holo +24%, MongolZ holo +31%, Vitality holo +36%. The first Stage 2 matches on June 6 will produce the next results-driven price discovery wave.

Full daily tracking across all four price sources in the SkinPulse Skin Database.

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