Capsule cycle Day 28 (June 19 morning close) shows full repricing across the four SF-bound holos after the QF results. The MongolZ holo extended +189% from cycle baseline — the largest single-event holo rally in Major capsule cycle history.
The SF-bound four holo leaderboard
- The MongolZ holo: +189%. Up from +146% on Day 25 close. The QF3 2-0 sweep over paiN added +43% in 14 hours. bLitz's 1.51 series rating is the carry story. Beyond the holo, the bLitz player-gold sticker jumped from $82 to $118 mean — first Mongolian three-digit player-gold in CS2 history.
- Vitality holo: +98%. Up from +89%. The QF1 2-1 over Aurora added +9% only — the close-call decider Ancient capped the move-trigger. SF1 result vs Spirit is the next major repricing.
- Spirit holo: +71%. Flat from Day 25. Pre-SF1 buyers hold to see donk's individual carry confirm.
- MOUZ holo: +51%. Up from +32%. The QF4 2-1 over Falcons + frozen's 1.39 series rating drove the +19% pre-SF2 move.
The eliminated four — capsule crash
Aurora, paiN, and Falcons holos collectively crashed -45% average post-elimination:
- Aurora holo: -38% from +14% pre-QF1. Post-elimination price is -15% from cycle baseline.
- paiN holo: -52% from +21% pre-QF3. Post-elimination price is -31% from baseline.
- Falcons holo: -45% from +28% pre-QF4. Post-elimination price is -17% from baseline.
NAVI holo (eliminated June 17 QF2) had recovered slightly to -22% from cycle baseline as Stage 3 buy-the-elimination contrarians stepped in.
SF1 move-trigger
SF1 Vitality-Spirit (June 19 18:00 CEST) is the next major capsule repricing event. Analyst consensus on the SF1 holo moves:
- Vitality SF1 win: Vitality holo to +135-150%, Spirit -30% to +40%.
- Spirit SF1 win: Spirit holo to +110-130%, Vitality -20% to +75%.
The MongolZ-MOUZ SF2 read
SF2 The MongolZ-MOUZ (June 20 18:00 CEST) is read as the bracket-determining match. The MongolZ favoured at -260 / +205 (implied 72% win probability). A MongolZ SF2 win would push the holo above +220% — entering record-rally territory.
