Day 6 of the BLAST Spring Finals 2026 sticker capsule cycle. MongolZ Champion Holo at $50.20 mean (+35.7% from $37 open), Vitality Champion Holo at $33.60 (+34.4% from $25). Pre-event peak approaching — Day 7 (July 13) projected trajectory now pointing to $54-58 MongolZ range.
Day 6 mean prices (July 12 close snapshot)
| Holo | Day 1 open | Day 6 close | 6-day Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| The MongolZ | $37.00 | $50.20 | +35.7% |
| Vitality | $25.00 | $33.60 | +34.4% |
| Spirit | $21.00 | $28.40 | +35.2% |
| NAVI | $15.00 | $20.80 | +38.7% |
| MOUZ | $16.00 | $21.90 | +36.9% |
| Falcons | $12.00 | $16.20 | +35.0% |
| GamerLegion | $11.00 | $14.80 | +34.5% |
| FaZe | $13.00 | $18.10 | +39.2% |
The NAVI Holo recovery accelerates
The NAVI Champion Holo (Day 3 laggard at -0.7%) now leads the cycle at +38.7% as of Day 6. The recovery is driven by:
- NAVI's Aleksib bench release paperwork filed July 12 morning (per our earlier coverage) → institutional clarity on NAVI's roster identity resolution.
- Expected kingfisher signal announcement July 13 → tier-1 IGL identity confirmed.
- kingfisher's 1.19 trial rating establishes NAVI's projected Spring Finals identity as tier-1 competitive rather than the tier-2-adjacent scenario that would have applied under sjr Madsen or extended-trial scenarios.
The FaZe Holo sustains high
FaZe Champion Holo at +39.2% is the cycle top-performer as of Day 6. Driver: the QF1 The MongolZ vs FaZe hype continues to build. Betting markets have QF1 as the biggest-handle CS2 match of July 2026. Sticker holo prices track betting-market handle roughly linearly during pre-event ramp phases.
Volume metrics
- Day 6 capsule openings: 52,000 (vs Day 5's 58,000 — supply absorption continuing)
- Cumulative 6-day openings: 445,000
- Supply cap remaining (of estimated 500K total): 55,000
- Skinport volume (all Holos combined): $6.8M (Day 5 all-time record) → $6.4M (Day 6 near-record)
Projected trajectory to Spring Finals open
- Day 7 (July 13, pre-event Day 0): Projected MongolZ Holo $54-58 (+46-57% from Day 1). Vitality Holo $35-38.
- Day 8 (July 14, QF1 The MongolZ vs FaZe): ±15-18% intraday based on QF1 result. MongolZ QF1 win → $64-72 close. MongolZ QF1 loss → $46-52 close (bracket-eliminated Holo begins the decline pattern).
- Day 9-11 (group stage + early bracket): Eliminated-team Holo prices decline -20-30%. Winner-side Holo prices continue upward trajectory.
- Day 12-14 (SF + Grand Final): Champion Holo trajectory peaks 12-24 hours after Grand Final. Historic pattern: peak +80-140% from opening = MongolZ Holo $67-89 range at cycle peak scenario.
Trader desk position status
- Tier-1 desk unrealised gains: ~$420K aggregate on the top-5 desks (up from $285K at Day 4 close). Realised P&L partial exits: ~$140K on positions closed near projected Day 6 range top.
- Tier-2 desk unrealised gains: ~$180K aggregate (mid-tier desks that entered Day 3-4).
- Retail unrealised gains: difficult to estimate but Skinport-reported retail favouriting up +32% week-over-week.
