Capsule cycle Day 25 (June 14 close) shows the Cologne 2026 sticker market has fully consolidated around the eight Champions teams ahead of the June 17 quarterfinal opener. The 16 Stage-2-eliminated teams' holo stickers lost an average 38% over the past 72 hours as Champions-only positioning crowded out their carry value.
The Champions-eight holo leaderboard at Day 25
- The MongolZ holo: +146% from baseline. Up from +138% on Day 24. The two-day extension reflects ongoing analyst-rerate carry plus the bracket-favourable Spirit-QF read among buyers.
- Vitality holo: +89%. Up from +84% on Day 24. The world No. 1 carry remains the steadiest of the eight.
- Spirit holo: +71%. Up from +68% on Day 24. donk-rating carry holds.
- NAVI holo: +44%. Up from +41%. Steady on the consensus-#4 seed.
- MOUZ holo: +32%. Flat from +31%. Map-pool concerns from MOUZ-NAVI Day 2 priced in.
- Falcons holo: +28%. Up from +25%. Karrigan's veteran-MVP read steady.
- paiN holo: +21%. Up from +18%. Brazilian buyer-base bid through Champions lock.
- Aurora holo: +14%. Up from +11%. No-bootcamp Almaty side remains the lowest-seeded carry.
The eliminated-teams collapse
The 16 teams eliminated at Stage 2 (Chinggis Warriors, GamerLegion, Nemiga, Imperial, FlyQuest, NRG, B8, Lynn Vision, TYLOO, BetBoom, Astralis, Heroic, FaZe, FURIA, and the two Stage-1 wildcard exits) saw their holo stickers drop an average 38% over the past 72 hours as buyer-base attention consolidated on the Champions-eight.
What the QF bracket will move
Day 25 closes with the Champions-eight bid-extensions priced through the QF bracket. The first move-trigger is the QF1 Vitality-Aurora result on June 17 17:00 CEST. A Vitality win likely extends Vitality to +120% and drops Aurora back to -15%. An Aurora upset would reset the entire pyramid.
