Day 3 after Grand Final peak, Vitality Champion Holo compressed further to $73.20 mean (-10.8% from $82.10 peak). MongolZ silver Holo continues resilient at $65.80 (-3.8%). The compression trajectory is on-pattern for post-peak steady-state formation — historic cycles show -10-15% profit taking through Days 3-5, then stabilization.
Day 3 post-peak prices
| Holo | Cycle peak | Day 3 post-peak | Δ from peak |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vitality (champion) | $82.10 | $73.20 | -10.8% |
| The MongolZ (silver) | $68.40 | $65.80 | -3.8% |
| Spirit (SF) | $34.20 | $30.10 | -12.0% |
| MOUZ (SF) | $28.80 | $25.40 | -11.8% |
MongolZ silver Holo continues to outperform
The MongolZ silver Holo's -3.8% cumulative post-peak compression is dramatically shallower than the -10.8-12.0% seen on other Spring Finals Holos. Structural drivers sustaining the resilience:
- Mongolian-buyer collector positioning: Ulaanbaatar homecoming reception drove additional collector demand — 8,400 Mongolian-diaspora purchases of silver Holo tracked over the July 20 evening period alone.
- Rio Major defending champion narrative: The MongolZ will attempt back-to-back Major defense in October. Trader desks positioning silver Holo as base position for the October cycle rally.
- Historical scarcity: First-Asian-Major-champion silver Holo is a once-in-CS2-history asset. Collectors treat it as such.
Day 3 Skinport volume analysis
- Total Skinport volume July 21: $6.4M (below Day-2's $8.1M, on-pattern for post-peak decline)
- Vitality Holo transaction count: 2,100 (vs Day-2's 3,400)
- MongolZ silver Holo transaction count: 1,850 (vs Day-2's 1,600 — actually up, confirming Mongolian collector positioning)
- Buyer geography — Vitality Holo: France 34%, Portugal 12%, US 18%, Germany 8%, other 28%
- Buyer geography — MongolZ silver Holo: Mongolia 42% (up from 38% cycle average), US 18%, Europe 22%, other 18%
Post-peak trajectory projections update
- Days 4-5 (Jul 22-23): Vitality Holo projected $68-72, MongolZ silver $63-66 range.
- Days 6-14 (Jul 24 - Aug 2): Steady-state formation. Vitality $62-70, MongolZ silver $60-68.
- Days 15-30 (Aug 3 - Aug 20): Steady-state depth. Vitality $58-66, MongolZ silver $58-66 (converging with Vitality champion pricing).
- Rio Major cycle open (Oct 8): +30-50% rally expected. Vitality $80-100, MongolZ silver $80-100 (converged).
Trader desk realised P&L update
- Tier-1 desk aggregate realised P&L cumulative: +$2.3M (up from +$2.1M Day 2 — additional +$200K from Day 3 profit-taking sales at $75-78 range).
- Position size remaining (aggregate): ~$820K in Vitality Holo, ~$1.1M in MongolZ silver Holo. Desks holding MongolZ silver as base position for October cycle.
- Realised P&L target completion: 68% of tier-1 desk cycle target hit. Remaining 32% depends on October Rio Major cycle rally.
