Valve released the IEM Cologne 2026 Souvenir capsule package on Steam Market June 23 afternoon — the standard post-Major secondary sticker release that follows every Major. The capsule contains Champions-tier holos for The MongolZ (winners) and Vitality (runner-up) plus Champions-tier stickers for the remaining six Champions teams.
Souvenir capsule contents
Each capsule has a 1-in-N drop chance for one of the following holo tiers:
- Champion Holo (The MongolZ) — 1% drop rate. Opening price $185 mean.
- Champion Holo (Vitality) — 1% drop rate (runner-up tier). $145 mean.
- Champion Holo (Spirit, MOUZ) — 1.5% each. $48-62 mean.
- Holo (NAVI, Falcons, paiN, Aurora) — 4% each. $18-24 mean.
- Foil tier (8 teams) — 12% each. $4-8 mean.
- Paper tier (8 teams) — 60% each. $0.50-1.20 mean.
The capsule itself trades at $3.20 on Skinport opening, expected to settle at $1.50-2.00 after 7 days of supply.
Player-gold tier inside Souvenir capsules
Souvenir capsules also drop player-gold variants at 0.1% rate. The bLitz player-gold Souvenir variant — distinct from the existing player-gold sticker — is expected to trade at $400-600 opening based on similar prior-Major player-gold Souvenir releases (donk Souvenir player-gold from PGL Copenhagen 2024 traded at $380 opening).
Market reaction
The capsule release triggered the expected supply-shock on the regular cycle MongolZ Holo — the +312% cycle peak has retraced to +218% as players assess the Souvenir vs regular price gap. Vitality Holo from +147% to +98%. Regular cycle prices typically stabilize at +60-80% from cycle baseline 7-14 days after the Souvenir release.
bLitz player-gold sustained
bLitz player-gold (regular, not Souvenir) sustained at $215 mean on Skinport — the Souvenir release did NOT drop the regular price because they're distinct items in the Steam item database. bLitz remains the top-priced player-gold sticker in CS2 over ZywOo ($172) and donk ($108).
Trader notes
Traders typically wait 7-14 days post-release to enter Souvenir positions — initial opening prices are inflated by hype/scarcity and tend to retrace 20-35% in the first two weeks. The historic-context premium on the MongolZ Champion Holo (first Asian champion) may sustain a premium above the typical retrace pattern.
